Modeling of credit portfolio management efficiency

Abstract

Credit operations, among the great variety of services provided by the bank, are one of the most important activities. In the assets of commercial banks, loans occupy a strong position of the most extensional and profitable items. The reliability and financial stability of commercial banks depends on the composition and structure of the bank's loan portfolio and the process of its management. Under current conditions, the development and improvement of the bank's loan portfolio management system intended to minimize the credit risks and ensure the sustainable operation of commercial banks have become particularly important. Crisis phenomena in economy have proved that the activities of any economic entity is associated with uncertainty in market development. Adverse developments in the world markets directly affected the solvency of borrowers of many banks. The increase in defaults of most borrowers resulted in the increase in defaults on loans, causing the increase in overdue debt, lower profitability and liquidity problems in banks. Thus, the recent crisis in the world economy, including Ukrainian economy, has demonstrated the failure of the methods used to assess and manage credit risk in banking, as well as the imperfection of the methods used to manage the loan portfolios of commercial banks. The results of the previous carried out investigation indicate that in order to form the correct management decisions and take practical actions concerning the formation of loan portfolio for commercial bank, it is necessary to assess its status. In this regard, the method of econometric modeling (determination of the relationship between gross domestic product and overdue debt of the banking system in Ukraine, the relationship between the volume of loans issued by banks and the discount rate; the relationship between the volume of loans issued to individuals and the volume of the loan portfolio in general) is differentiated in this paper from other estimation methods. This method made it possible to determine the effectiveness of loan portfolio management of commercial banks. The results of the calculations provide reasons to confirm that there is insignificant relationship between the level of loans to individuals and the loan portfolio.