Interleukin-6-to-Albumin Ratio as a Superior Predictor of Mortality in End-Stage Kidney Disease Patients

Abstract

Introduction: In patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), high interleukin-6 (IL-6) and low albumin circulating concentrations are associated with worse outcomes. We examined the IL-6-to-albumin ratio (IAR) as a predictor of risk of death in incident dialysis patients. Methods: In 428 incident dialysis patients (median age 56 years, 62% men, 31% diabetes mellitus, 38% cardiovascular disease [CVD]), plasma IL-6 and albumin were measured at baseline to calculate IAR. We compared the discrimination of IAR with other risk factors for predicting 60-month mortality using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and analyzed the association of IAR with mortality using Cox regression analysis. We divided patients into IAR tertiles and analyzed: (1) cumulative incidence of mortality and the association of IAR with mortality risk in Fine-Gray analysis, taking kidney transplantation as competing risk and (2) the restricted mean survival time (RMST) to 60-month mortality and differences of RMST (∆RMST) between IAR tertiles to describe quantitative differences of survival time. Results: For all-cause mortality, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for IAR was 0.700, which was greater than for IL-6 and albumin separately, while for CV mortality, the AUC for IAR (0.658) showed negligible improvement over IL-6 and albumin separately. In Cox regression analysis, IAR was significantly associated with all-cause mortality but not with CV mortality. Both high versus low and middle versus low tertiles of IAR associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality, subdistribution hazard ratio of 2.22 (95% CI 1.40–3.52) and 1.85 (95% CI 1.16–2.95), respectively, after adjusting for age, sex, diabetes mellitus, CVD, smoking, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. ∆RMST at 60 months showed significantly shorter survival time in middle and high IAR tertiles compared with low IAR tertile for all-cause mortality. Conclusions: Higher IAR was independently associated with significantly higher all-cause mortality risk in incident dialysis patients. These results suggest that IAR may provide useful prognostic information in patients with CKD.