Coagulation Risk Predicting in Anticoagulant-Free Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy

Abstract

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) is a prolonged continuous extracorporeal blood purification therapy to replace impaired renal function. Typically, CRRT therapy requires routine anticoagulation, but for patients at risk of bleeding and with contraindications to sodium citrate, anticoagulant-free dialysis therapy is necessary. However, this approach increases the risk of CRRT circuit coagulation, leading to treatment interruption and increased resource consumption. In this study, we utilized artificial intelligence machine learning methods to predict the risk of CRRT circuit coagulation based on pre-CRRT treatment metrics. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> We retrospectively analyzed 212 patients who underwent anticoagulant-free CRRT from October 2022 to October 2023. Patients were categorized into high-risk and low-risk groups based on CRRT circuit coagulation within 24 h. We employed eight machine learning methods to predict the risk of circuit coagulation. The performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic. 5-fold cross-validation was used to validate the machine learning models. Feature importance and SHAP plots were used to interpret the model’s performance and key drivers. <b><i>Results:</i></b> We identified 88 patients (41.51%) at high risk of circuit coagulation within 24 h of CRRT. Our machine learning models showed excellent predictive performance, with ensemble learning achieving an AUC of 0.863 (95% CI: 0.860–0.868), outperforming individual algorithms. Random forest was the best single-algorithm model, with an AUC of 0.819 (95% CI: 0.814–0.823). The top three features identified as most important by the SHAP summary plot and feature importance graph are platelet, filtration fraction (FF), and triglycerides. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> We created a model using machine learning to predict the risk of circuit coagulation during anticoagulant-free CRRT therapy. Our model performs well (AUC 0.863) and identifies key factors like platelets, FF, and triglycerides. This facilitates the development of personalized treatment strategies by clinicians aimed at reducing circuit coagulation risk, thereby enhancing patient outcomes and reducing healthcare expenses.