Accuracy of Predicting Fetal Loss in Twin Pregnancies Using Gestational Age-Dependent Weight Discordance Cut-Offs: Analysis of the STORK Multiple Pregnancy Cohort

Abstract

Objectives: A third-trimester fetal weight discordance of 25% has been proposed as an independent predictor of fetal loss in twin pregnancies. As fetal weight gain at this stage of pregnancy increases exponentially, it is not entirely certain whether a single cut-off for inter-twin weight discordance is appropriate. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a single weight discordance cut-off can be used or whether different cut-offs should be adopted according to the gestational age at assessment. Methods: This was a retrospective study of all twin pregnancies of known chorionicity from a large regional cohort over a 10-year period. Receiver operating characteristic curve and logistic regression analyses were used to explore the relation between estimated fetal weight (EFW) discordance detected within 4 weeks from the occurrence of the outcome and single fetal loss at different gestational age windows. Results: 957 twin pregnancies (173 monochorionic and 784 dichorionic) were included in the analysis. EFW discordance was independently associated with the occurrence of single fetal loss in twin pregnancies in each gestational age window. Ultrasound EFW discordance had an area under the curve of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.67-0.87) for the prediction of single fetal loss in the third trimester of pregnancy, with an optimal cut-off of around 25% (23.2%). The optimal cut-offs of EFW discordance for the prediction of single fetal loss were different in each gestational age window. Conclusion: The accuracy of EFW discordance in predicting single fetal loss in twin pregnancies varies during the third trimester of pregnancy. The degree of fetal weight discordance associated with fetal loss decreases during the third trimester, suggesting that the weight discordance threshold for intervention should vary according to gestational age.