Analysis of Risk of Death due to COVID-19 in Cameroon

Abstract

Background Cameroon is battling against the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Although several control measures have been implemented, the epidemic continues to progress. This paper analyses the evolution of the pandemic in Cameroon and attempts to provide insight on the evolution of COVID-19 within the country’s population. Methods A susceptible-infected-recovered-dead (SIRD)-like model coupled with a discrete time-dependent Markov chain was applied to predict COVID-19 distribution and assess the risk of death. Two main assumptions were examined in a 10-state and 3-state Markov chain: i) a recovered person can get infected again; ii) the person will remain recovered. The COVID-19 data collected in Cameroon during the period of March 6 to July 30, 2020 were used in the analysis. Results COVID-19 epidemic showed several peaks. The reproductive number was 3.08 between May 18 and May 31; 2.75 between June 1 and June 25, and 2.84 between June 16 and June 24. The number of infected individuals ranged from 17632 to 26424 (June 1 to June 15), and 28100 to 36628 (June 16 to June 24). The month of January 2021 was estimated as the last epidemic peak. Under the assumption that a recovered person will get infected again with probability 0.15, 50000 iterations of the Markov chain (10 and 3- state) demonstrated that the death state was the most probable state. The estimated lethality rate was 0.44, 95%CI=0.10%-0.79%. Mean lethality rate assuming ii) was 0.10. Computation of transition probabilities from reported data revealed a significant increase in the number of active cases throughout July and August, 2020, with a mean lethality rate of 3% by September 2020. Conclusion Multiple approaches to data analysis is a fundamental step for managing and controlling COVID-19 in Cameroon. The rate of transmission of COVID-19 is growing fast because of insufficient implementation of public health measures. While the epidemic is spreading, assessment of major factors that contribute to COVID-19-associated mortality may provide the country’s public health system with strategies to reduce the burden of the disease. The model outputs present the threatening nature of the disease and its consequences. Considering the model outputs and taking concrete actions may enhance the implementation of current public health intervention strategies in Cameroon. Strict application of preventive measures, such as wearing masks and social distancing, could be reinforced before and after the opening of learning institutions (schools and universities) in the 2020/2021 calendar year and next.