DEPOPULATION IN RUSSIA: RESULTS FOR 1992–2022, COMPONENTS AND COMPENSATION BY MIGRATION AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL

Abstract

The object of the study is the population of Russia and its regions. The subject of the study is the general results of the reproduction of the population of the Russian Federation for the period from the beginning of 1992 to the end of 2022, its components, as well as the role of migration growth in mitigating or aggravating depopulation in the regions of Russia. The purpose of the paper is to substantiate and reveal in dynamics the components of depopulation for Russia as a whole – for 31 post-Soviet years, as well as to identify typical groups of Russian regions by the nature of the ratio of the final natural and migration growth/loss. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that for sustainable socio-economic development in unevenly and generally sparsely populated Russia, upward demographic dynamics are necessary, and such a negative modern process as depopulation is the main obstacle on this path. The research method is a cross-sectional analysis of demographic data using classical statistical techniques, such as grouping, tabular and graphic methods, the method of averages, etc. The scientific novelty of the study: the role of various components in the formation of the dynamics of the population of Russia as a whole for 31 post-Soviet years is revealed; of all regions, territories have been identified that are homogeneous in nature in the ratio of natural and migration growth/loss as a whole for a given period. The results of the study: the contribution of fertility, mortality of the population, as well as age-related structural waves to the formation of the sustainable natural decline in the Russian Federation has been determined. The role of population migration in compensating or aggravating the consequences of depopulation in the regions of Russia during the period under review has been established. One of the conclusions of the study: the most significant drawback of the current migration, and demographic situation in Russia is that some regions receive migration growth from others, among which the marginal territories of the Far East and the land Arctic zone, which are mainly geopolitically significant for Russia; and there is no justification for supporting the situation of the growth of the main migration recipients of Russia at the expense of rapidly dying territories due to depopulation.