Predicting mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19 in the ICU from a secondary-level hospital in Ecuador

Abstract

Since its molecular isolation on January 7, 2020, the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has spread rapidly, affecting regions such as Latin America. Ecuador received the worst outbreak globally if we count excess mortality per capita. This study describes the clinical, epidemiological and therapeutic characteristics of 89 patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) in a second-level hospital in Quito, Ecuador. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study. We collected data from health records of adult patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to an ICU in Quito, Ecuador, during the first five months of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. We used the Chi-square test or Fisher's exact statistics to analyze risk and associations between survivors and non-survivors. We used ROC curve analysis to predict mortality and determine cut-off points for mechanical, analytical, and cytometric ventilation parameters. We used the Wald test to evaluate the categorical predictors of the model at the multivariate level during the regression analysis. Results: 89 patients were recruited. The mean age of the patients was 54.72 years. Men represented 68.54% (n=61) and women 31.46% (n=28). Significant differences in mortality were observed (men 40.98% vs. women 17.76%). LDH and IL-6 at 24 hours after hospital admission were higher among non-survivors than survivors. Persistent hypercapnia (PaCO2 >45 mmHg), a PaFiO2 ratio of less than 140 mmHg, and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) titration >9 mmHg were also associated with increased mortality. Conclusions: Elevated levels of LDH at 24 hours, IL-6 at 24 hours, lymphocyte and platelet count at 48 hours, neutrophil count at 48 hours and NLR are factors associated with higher motility, higher risk of failed extubation and reintubation in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome due to COVID-19.