Tuberculosis prevalence in children in the Northwestern Federal District of Russia before and after COVID-19 pandemic: prognosis and epidemiological models

Abstract

Aim. To assess changes in the epidemic indicators of tuberculosis infection (TB) in children in the Northwestern Federal District of Russia before and after the COVID-19 pandemic based on mathematical modeling and forecasting.Materials and methods. The main epidemiological indicators of TB were analyzed using the official statistical data for 2009–2021. A mathematical forecasting of epidemiological indicators was performed based on chest X-ray screening for TB. A statistical analysis was carried out using the software environment R (v.3.5.1) and the commercial software Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 24.0, IBM Corp., 2016). Time series forecasting was performed using the programming language of statistical calculations R, version 4.1.2 and the bsts package, version 0.9.8. Results. The mean regression coefficient of a single predictor was found to differ in a model for TB morbidity in children is 0.0098. X-ray screening for TB was established to be a significant mortality predictor in children. At least 60% of the population should undergo TB screening in order for TB prevalence to be controlled in a country with a population above 140 million people.Conclusions. The conducted study revealed a positive correlation between the incidence of tuberculosis in children in Russia and TB screening in at least 60% of the population. Under the current TB screening system in Russia, the epidemic TB situation will continue to improve, despite COVID-19 restrictions.  At the same time, in the Northwestern Federal District of Russia, preventive TB screening can be considered sufficient only in the Kaliningrad, Murmansk, and Pskov Oblasts.