The Potential for Improving the Population Health Effectiveness of Screening: A Simulation Study

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Screening interventions in pediatric primary care often have limited effects on patients’ health. Using simulation, we examined what conditions must hold for screening to improve population health outcomes, using screening for depression in adolescence as an example. METHODS Through simulation, we varied parameters describing the working recognition and treatment of depression in primary care. The outcome measure was the effect of universal screening on adolescent population mental health, expressed as a percentage of the maximum possible effect. Through simulations, we randomly selected parameter values from the ranges of possible values identified from studies of care delivery in real-world pediatric settings. RESULTS We examined the comparative effectiveness of universal screening over assessment as usual in 10 000 simulations. Screening achieved a median of 4.2% of the possible improvement in population mental health (average: 4.8%). Screening had more impact on population health with a higher sensitivity of the screen, lower false-positive rate, higher percentage screened, and higher probability of treatment, given the recognition of depression. However, even at the best levels of each of these parameters, screening usually achieved <10% of the possible effect. CONCLUSIONS The many points at which the mental health care delivery process breaks down limit the population health effects of universal screening in primary care. Screening should be evaluated in the context of a realistic model of health care system functioning. We need to identify health care system structures and processes that strengthen the population effectiveness of screening or consider alternate solutions outside of primary care.