A Novel Risk Score to Guide the Evaluation of Acute Hematogenous Osteomyelitis in Children

Abstract

OBJECTIVES To identify independent predictors of and derive a risk score for acute hematogenous osteomyelitis (AHO) in children. METHODS We conducted a retrospective matched case-control study of children >90 days to <18 years of age undergoing evaluation for a suspected musculoskeletal (MSK) infection from 2017 to 2019 at 23 pediatric emergency departments (EDs) affiliated with the Pediatric Emergency Medicine Collaborative Research Committee. Cases were identified by diagnosis codes and confirmed by chart review to meet accepted diagnostic criteria for AHO. Controls included patients who underwent laboratory and imaging tests to evaluate for a suspected MSK infection and received an alternate final diagnosis. RESULTS We identified 1135 cases of AHO matched to 2270 controls. Multivariable logistic regression identified 10 clinical and laboratory factors independently associated with AHO. We derived a 4-point risk score for AHO using (1) duration of illness >3 days, (2) history of fever or highest ED temperature ≥38°C, (3) C-reactive protein >2.0 mg/dL, and (4) erythrocyte sedimentation rate >25 mm per hour (area under the curve: 0.892, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.881 to 0.901). Choosing to pursue definitive diagnostics for AHO when 3 or more factors are present maximizes diagnostic accuracy at 84% (95% CI: 82% to 85%), whereas children with 0 factors present are highly unlikely to have AHO (sensitivity: 0.99, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.00). CONCLUSIONS We identified 10 predictors for AHO in children undergoing evaluation for a suspected MSK infection in the pediatric ED and derived a novel 4-point risk score to guide clinical decision-making.