Child Health Needs and the Pediatric Emergency Medicine Workforce: 2020–2040

Author:

Iyer Maya S.12,Nagler Joshua3,Mink Richard B.4,Gonzalez del Rey Javier5

Affiliation:

1. aDepartment of Pediatrics, The Ohio State University College of Medicine, Columbus, Ohio

2. bNationwide Children’s Hospital, Columbus, Ohio

3. cDepartment of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School/Boston Children’s Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts

4. dThe Lundquist Institute for Biomedical Innovation at Harbor, University of California Los Angeles Medical Center, Torrance, California

5. eDepartment of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio

Abstract

Approximately 30 million ill and injured children annually visit emergency departments (EDs) in the United States. Data suggest that patients seen in pediatric EDs by board-certified pediatric emergency medicine (PEM) physicians receive higher-quality care than those cared for by non-PEM physicians. These benefits, coupled with the continued growth in PEM since its inception in the early 1990s, have impacted child health broadly. This article is part of a Pediatrics supplement focused on predicting the future pediatric subspecialty workforce supply by drawing on the American Board of Pediatrics workforce data and a microsimulation model of the future pediatric subspecialty workforce. The article discusses the utilization of acute care services in EDs, reviews the current state of the PEM subspecialty workforce, and presents projected numbers of PEM subspecialists at the national, census region, and census division on the basis of this pediatric subspecialty workforce supply model through 2040. Implications of this model on education and training, clinical practice, policy, and future workforce research are discussed. Findings suggest that, if the current growth in the field of PEM continues on the basis of the increasing number and size of fellowship programs, even with a potential reduction in percentage of clinical time and attrition of senior physicians, the PEM workforce is anticipated to increase nationally. However, the maldistribution of PEM physicians is likely to be perpetuated with the highest concentration in New England and Mid-Atlantic regions and “PEM deserts” in less populated areas.

Publisher

American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP)

Reference67 articles.

1. Comparing definitions of a pediatric emergency department;Samuels-Kalow;J Am Coll Emerg Physicians Open,2021

2. Child health and the US pediatric subspecialty workforce: planning for the future;Leslie;Pediatrics,2024

3. Forecasting the future supply of pediatric subspecialists in the United States: 2020–2040;Fraher;Pediatrics,2024

4. Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP). Statistical brief #242;McDermott

5. Pediatric emergency department visits at US children’s hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic;DeLaroche;Pediatrics,2021

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