CRISIS 2022–...: POTENTIAL SCOPE AND EXPECTED CONSEQUENCES

Abstract

This article analyzes the features of the current crisis in Russian economy and estimates its impact on the upcoming institutional changes nature. The conclusion about the potential trajectory of the downturn is made based on the comparison of external shocks, stabilization policy measures and the reaction of economic agents during this and two previous crises. A shock of demand, caused by a sharp increase in the interest rates, triggers a rapid fall, the necessity of solving structural problems will take a long time. Changes of economic ties and transportation schemes, import substitution development in the industries important for ensuring the sovereignty of the national economy, will lead to a long period of economic recovery. An inflationary processes analysis has shown that the price increase acceleration, which is common for recessions in Russia, caused by external shocks and the exchange rate pass-through to trade prices, is being replaced by cost-push inflation, which requires an adequate change in the Bank of Russia policy. This article highlights the main problems in the field of employment during the current recession: the growth of structural unemployment and the need in the large-scale reorientation and requalification of workers. The fundamental changes in the institutional changes direction, due to the current crisis, are highlighted in this article. For the large backbone corporations state regulation will be strengthened to ensure the implementation of the structural planning goals, up to bringing a number of target indicators. Industrial policy is becoming the focal area of managing structural shifts. Debureaucratization in all spheres of economic and social life is pointed out as the most important requirement of the accelerated economy adaptation to new conditions especially for small and medium-size enterprises.