A new wave of migration in Ukraine on the background of Russian invasion: dynamics, challenges and risks

Abstract

The large-scale Russian military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to a significant increase in the indicators of migration flows of the Ukrainian population, the absolute values of which increased by 10 or more times compared to previous periods. The authors evaluated the dynamics of indicators of population migration in the state, both internal and external, and found a number of similarities and differences between subsequent migration waves. Based on the study, the indicators of migration flows were grouped into three waves disaggregated by time. The first group is from the obtaining the country's independence to the first stage of the military invasion of Ukraine, as a period of peace in the state (1991–2014). The second one begins with Russian aggression (2014–2022) and the third group is a large-scale invasion of the Russian army into Ukraine (from 2022). The use of statistical and economic methods (scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis, descriptive statistics’ methods, econometric modelling, regression point and interval estimates) and SWOT analysis provided a basis for determining a number of challenges, threats and opportunities for the countries of origin and destination regarding the prospects for the development of migration processes.