Markups and CPI

Abstract

The persistently high inflation since the COVID-19 pandemic, including its strong upward trend in 2020-2023 in Europe and the USA, raises many questions as to the causes for such a situation. Evidently, the problem lies in the persistent inflation expectations of enterprises (in light of the overlapping effects of the energy crises and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine) and increased markups as the response of enterprises to future cost increases. Empirical data indicates that the dynamics of markups in individual economic sections are diversified like never before. All this creates a research gap, which this paper aims to fill. Therefore, the aim of this study is to diagnose the impact of markups on changes in the consumer price index (CPI) in Poland in 2008-2023, identify the markups with the strongest impact, and determine changes in the competitiveness of the economy compared to EU countries. Markups were divided into nine main groups as per NACE classification of economic activity. The impact of markups on CPI changes was assessed using the VAR model. The results indicate that markups in the mining and quarrying (B) and the real estate market service (L) had the greatest pro-inflationary impact on CPI changes and explained about 30% of all CPI changes in Poland. The research results are useful to those formulating the monetary policy, as identifying key sectors whose markup policies explain the changes in CPI is crucial to determining the optimal actions and policy measures.