Determinants for post-pandemic recovery of macroeconomic stability: Evidence from European countries

Abstract

The destructive consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have negatively affected socioeconomic indicators and disrupted macroeconomic stability. The aim of the study is to determine the optimal combination of financial, socioeconomic, and public health determinants based on their relevance for the post-pandemic recovery of macroeconomic stability. For this purpose, principal component analysis was used to form an initial macroeconomic stability index by integrating such indicators as GDP growth, unemployment rate, consumer price index, current account balance, and trade volume. Next, the Granger test and panel data regression modeling was employed to identify the causality between the level of macroeconomic stability and a set of financial, socioeconomic and public health determinants. Finally, the financial, socioeconomic, and public health determinants were ranked according to their impact on macroeconomic stability. The obtained empirical results can be used to improve the financial, economic, and health care state policies in terms of strengthening country resistance to risks caused by a pandemic or other similar threats in the future.