Spatial proximity matters, predispositions do not: explaining policy preferences for long-term natural disaster mitigation

Abstract

AbstractVoter myopia, the inability and unwillingness of citizens to accept policies whose benefits only materialise over a long period, is often considered an almost inevitable feature of representative democracy. Recent studies have subjected this assumption to empirical scrutiny, but the extent to which variation in political future orientation of citizens is associated with support for alternative policies, with differing temporal profiles of benefits and costs, has remained largely uncharted. Utilising survey data from Finland (n = 1049), we study the associations spatial proximity to a regionally relevant problem, flooding and political future orientation have with choices between policy alternatives that distribute benefits differently between generations. We found that, while levels of political future orientation are not a significant determinant of the willingness to invest in the future wellbeing, heightened issue salience linked to geographic proximity to the potential event plays a role in shaping policy preferences.