Signaling to creditors and voters: the determinants of national fiscal rules

Abstract

AbstractFiscal rules are spreading fast among countries. However, why and when governments enact fiscal rules and strengthen their national fiscal legal frameworks are less well understood. This article argues that governments use fiscal rules to signal commitment to fiscal prudence to both creditors and national voters. It investigates this theoretical argument empirically by using a worldwide panel of countries from 1985 to 2015. The empirical analyses find robust evidence that fiscal rules enactment becomes more likely, and that fiscal rules stringency increases when government debt is high and in election years but less evidence that being under an IMF program increases the strength of fiscal rules.