Australia and the Ukraine crisis: deterring authoritarian expansionism

Abstract

AbstractThis paper seeks to explain Australia’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and how it has affected Australia’s strategic decisions in responding to Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific. Canberra’s responses are consistent with the ‘dependent ally’ and the ‘middle power’ traditions in Australian foreign policy. The paper argues that these responses are framed by assessments that a competition and struggle between a democratic and authoritarian bloc is occurring; authoritarian values and approaches are key causes of instability and disruption to the post-World War II liberal rules-based order; and should Moscow achieve its objectives in Ukraine and beyond, there is an increased possibility that Beijing will be tempted to use similar coercive measures against Taiwan and other nations. Canberra is consequently putting even more emphasis on the US-Australia alliance, and groupings such as AUKUS and the Quad as central to collective democratic action to constrain and deter contrary authoritarian behaviours in the Indo- Pacific.