Are the effects of energy security on economic growth symmetric or asymmetric in Turkey? An application of non-linear ARDL

Abstract

This paper is examined whether the relationship between economic growth and energy security risk level is symmetric or asymmetric in the case of Turkey between 1980 and 2018. What makes different of this study from the others few studies that examine the effects of energy security on economic growth by considering the 4A of energy security is that it examines the asymmetric impacts of energy security on economic growth by using the NARDL method. Accordingly, the results of the linear ARDL demonstrate that there is no long-term relationship between energy security risk level and economic growth. On the other hand, the results of the non-linear ARDL indicate that there is an asymmetrical relationship between economic growth and energy security risk level both in the long and short-term. Furthermore, according to the NARDL results, a 1% increase in energy security risk level decreases economic growth by approximately 0.60%, while a 1% decrease in energy security risk level increases economic growth by approximately 1.72%. These results demonstrate that economic growth in Turkey is significantly affected by positive and negative changes in the energy security risk level. Therefore, the results reveal the importance of policies to ensure energy security and allow for important policy implications for policymakers.