IPOs AND EVALUATION OF THE BORSA ISTANBUL IPO INDEX

Abstract

This study emphasizes the importance of capital markets and delves into the opportunities and risks that IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) offer for companies and investors. Capital markets provide an avenue for both domestic and foreign investors to make long-term investments, thereby contributing to economic growth. IPOs enable the broadening of capital distribution and the participation of small investors, ultimately supporting economic stability. However, opening new accounts solely for IPO participation may limit market transactions and hinder long-term investments. Financial markets in Turkey have rapidly developed, driven by structural regulations and efforts towards global integration. Nevertheless, financial crises and pandemic events have caused fluctuations in the market. IPOs play a crucial role in bringing companies into financial markets and converting funds into investments. Therefore, various projects have been initiated to increase the number of publicly traded companies and promote capital market development. In the analytical part of the study, the performance of the Borsa Istanbul IPO Index (XHARZ) is examined, and forecasting is conducted. Traditional ARIMA (p,d,q) models and artificial intelligence-based XGBoost models are used for predictions, followed by a comparison of their performance. The results of the analysis show that the machine learning based XGBoost Model provides the best forecasting performance.