Development of the SAFETEA Scores for Predicting Risks of Complications of Preventive Endovascular or Microneurosurgical Intracranial Aneurysm Occlusion

Abstract

Objective:Preventive unruptured intracranial aneurysm occlusion can reduce the risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage, but both endovascular and microneurosurgical treatment carry a risk of serious complications. To improve individualized management decisions, we developed risk scores for complications of endovascular and microneurosurgical treatment based on easily retrievable patient, aneurysm, and treatment characteristics.Methods:For this multicenter cohort study, we combined individual patient data from unruptured intracranial aneurysm patients ≥18 years undergoing preventive endovascular treatment (standard, balloon-assisted or stent-assisted coiling, Woven EndoBridge-device, or flow-diverting stent) or microneurosurgical clipping at one of 10 participating centers from three continents between 2000-2018. The primary outcome was death from any cause or clinical deterioration from neurological complications ≤30 days. We selected predictors based on previous knowledge about relevant risk factors and predictor performance and studied the association between predictors and complications with logistic regression. We assessed model performance with calibration plots and concordance (c) statistics.Results:Of 1282 included patients, 94 (7.3%) had neurological symptoms that resolved <30 days, 140 (10.9%) had persisting neurological symptoms, and 6 died (0.5%)). At 30 days, 52 patients (4.1%) were dead or dependent. Predictors of procedural complications were: size of aneurysm, aneurysm location, familial subarachnoid hemorrhage, earlier atherosclerotic disease, treatment volume, endovascular modality (for endovascular treatment) or extra aneurysm configuration factors (for microneurosurgical treatment; branching artery from aneurysm neck or unfavorable dome-to-neck ratio), and age (acronym: SAFETEA). For endovascular treatment (n=752), the c-statistic was 0.72 (95%CI:0.67-0.77) and the absolute complication risk ranged from 3.2% (95%CI:1.6%-14.9%;≤1 point) to 33.1% (95%CI:25.4%-41.5%;≥6 points). For microneurosurgical treatment (n=530), the c-statistic was 0.72 (95%CI:0.67-0.77) and the complication risk ranged from 4.9% (95%CI:1.5%-14.9%;≤1 point) to 49.9% (95%CI:39.4%-60.6%;≥6 points).Conclusions:The SAFETEA risk scores for endovascular and microneurosurgical treatment are based on seven easily retrievable risk factors to predict the absolute risk of procedural complications in patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms. The scores need external validation before the predicted risks can be properly used to support decision making in clinical practice.