Economic Determinants of High Order Births in Russia: The Study Based on the Analysis of Regional Differentiation

Abstract

Introduction. Demographic problems are one of the acutest in modern Russia. Negative demographic trends which are specifically manifested in the regions of the country, actualize the study of trends, causes and consequences of the decline in fertility. This will allow developing more effective measures of state support and stimulation of the birth rate. At the same time, the study of regional differentiation is especially in demand in relation to higher-order births. An increase in the number of births of third and subsequent children is necessary to overcome negative demographic trends and increase the population in the country. The purpose of the article is to study the features of regional differentiation of high order births in Russia and to assess the influence of economic factors on them. Materials and Methods. The demographic indicators of Rosstat for 2018–2021, presented in the regional context, were used as an information base; ratings of regions of the agency RIA Rating. The methods of descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and comparison tests were used. Based on the Tukey criterion the regions with atypical values of the birth rate were identified and described separately. Results. The analysis has revealed a high level of regional differentiation of higher-order births; showed no relationship between the birth rate of third and subsequent children and the following economic factors in the regions: the implementation of regional maternity capital programs, the level of socio-economic development of the region and the level of well-being of families in the region. The analysis has showed that these factors are not related to the nature of the dynamics of the birth rate of third and subsequent children in the regions of Russia. Discussions and Conclusions. The results obtained have allowed us to conclude that the determinants of high-order births in Russia are not limited to the economic conditions of the population’s life. The effectiveness of the economic measures implemented in the country to support and stimulate high-order births has not been confirmed. The results can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of pronatalist state measures. Understanding the features and causes of the emerging regional differentiation of high-order births will make it possible to build more reasonable forecasts of demographic dynamics.