Ideas about the Geopolitical Future of Russia as a Factor of Russian Society Consolidation

Abstract

Introduction. The problems of preserving the sovereignty, national identity, territorial and cultural integrity of Russia have become now particularly relevant in the framework of the global confrontation with the West, and have become important factors in the consolidation of Russian society. The purpose of the article is to assess the role of civil society and the expert community’s views on the geopolitical future of Russia in the context of preserving the territorial and cultural integrity of the country as a factor of consolidation of Russian society. Materials and Methods. The empirical basis of the article is the results of the sociological monitoring “How do you live, Russia” (1992–2022) and the data of in-depth interviews of experts obtained as part of the study “Forecasts and alternatives for the development of Russia by the eyes of Russians” (2021), which were conducted with the participation of the authors of the article. The sociological monitoring survey allowed to study the dynamics of citizens’ perceptions of the geopolitical future of the Russian Federation and to trace the connection of the main trends with the indicators of consolidation of society included in the toolkit. In-depth interviews were aimed at identifying the dominant points of the expert community’s view that determine the direction of public discourse. Results. The preservation of the integrity of the Russian Federation and its sovereignty in the long term does not cause doubts among experts or the population, even in the conditions of a crisis and uncertain future associated with the formation of a multipolar world. Optimistic scenarios are considered, emphasizing the strengthening of Russia’s role in the new world order, and pessimistic ones, reflecting isolation models of development. Discussion and Conclusion. Although the multinational composition of Russia and the federal structure can be interpreted as a potential threat to the internal destabilization of the country, a favorable trend in the field of interethnic and interfaith relations in Russia has been observed since 2016. Both the population and the majority of experts are optimistic about the prospects of interethnic and interregional relations against the background of the emerging civil identity. They predict Russia’s powerful progressive development in the future, using as arguments ideologems about Russia’s special path, as well as the achievements of the state in solving social problems and their own hopes.