System Assessment of the International “North-South” Transport Corridor’ Trans-Caspian Route Based on Dynamic Standard Model

Abstract

Introduction. Assessing the volume and structure of trade, particularly in multimodal transportation, is a challenging task, especially when the aim of such an assessment is to identify bottlenecks and remove them. Methodological approaches for solving such problems can vary significantly and include rather complex techniques such as object-oriented programming and network models, allowing to reflect the discrete character of tradeflow. Nevertheless, considering the significant role of international transportation infrastructure in the modern global economy, solving this problem appears relevant and has practical significance. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for a discrete, high-frequency evaluation of the volume of goods transit along the Trans-Caspian corridor of the International “North-South” Transport Corridor, whereas the objective is the trade volume along this route. Materials and Methods. The methodology of this work consists of two components – data processing and analysis and model construction, based on the standard dynamic model. The first component is necessary due to the limited character of data on goods transported via the International “North-South” Transport Corridor. In the second part of the study, the corridor is divided into several sections and the changes in the turnover for each section are analyzed using the dynamic standard method. Results. The barriers to the development of the Trans-Caspian Corridor and the interests of participants in its operation are assessed. A toolkit for evaluating the performance of the corridor is created, considering the bottle neck in the transportation of goods via Iran. Statistical data are processed, and problematic times and sections of the corridor are identified. Recommendations on the development of the Trans-Caspian and international transport corridors in modern conditions are formulated. Discussion and Conclusion. The main results and conclusions of this study include the authorsʼ system for monitoring and regulating the flow of goods along the corridor; identifying imbalances in the operation of the Trans-Caspian Corridor and International “North-South” Transport Corridor as a system; and possible solutions to align these imbalances. Recommendations for the development of the Trans-Caspian corridor and the International “North-South” Transport Corridor in modern conditions. This study has practical implications for logistics companies, financial institutions, Russian exporters, and authorities of economic blocs.