Glacier shrinkage across High Mountain Asia

Abstract

AbstractAn assessment of glacier shrinkage (reduction of area) for all of High Mountain Asia requires a complete compilation of measured rates of change and also a methodology for objective comparison of rates. I present a compilation from 155 publications reporting glacier area changes, and also a methodology that overcomes the main obstacles hindering comparison. Glacier areas are not always assigned uncertainties, and this problem is addressed with an error model derived from published estimates. The problem of discordant survey dates is addressed by interpolating measured areas to fixed dates at pentadal intervals. Interpolation error depends only incoherently on the time span between measurements, but strongly on glacier size: smaller glaciers, in addition to changing more rapidly on average, exhibit more variable rates of change. The overlapping boundaries of study regions are reconciled by mapping all of the information to a 0.5° geographical grid. When coupled with glacier area information from the Randolph Glacier Inventory, the widely observed inverse dependence of shrinkage rates on glacier size shows promise as a tool for treating incomplete spatial coverage. Over High Mountain Asia as a whole from 1960 to 2010, the unweighted average shrinkage rate is –0.57% a–1, but corrections for variable glacier size raise the average to –0.34% a–1, and filling unmeasured gridcells with rates based on size dependence alters the latter estimate to –0.40% a–1. The uncertainties in these rates are large. The Karakoram anomaly is found to be a zonal feature extending well to the east of the Karakoram proper.