Abstract
Regional assessments of impacts due to global climate change are a high
priority in the international programs on global-change research. in the polar
regions, climate models indicate an amplification of global greenhouse warming,
but there are large differences between the results of various models, and
uncertainties about the magnitude and timing of the expected changes. Also, the
observed high-latitude climate trends over the past few decades are much more
regional and patchy than predicted by the models. As a first step in assessing
possible climate impacts, model results are compared with observations of changes
in temperature, precipitation, sea-ice extent, the permafrost regime and other
cryospheric parameters. While considerable uncertainties remain in the long-term
prediction of change, there is some agreement between model results and observed
trends by season on shorter time-scales, The warming observed over the land masses
of the Arctic over the past few decades is matched by corresponding observed
decreases in snow cover the glacier mass, balances, by thawing of the permafrost,
and to a lesser degree by reductions in sea-ice extent. in Antarctica, warming in
the Antarctic Peninsula and Ross Sea regions is associated with large decreases in
ice-shelf areas and reduced ice thicknesses on the lakes in the McMurdo Dry
Valleys. Major future impacts due to global greenhouse warming are likely to
include permafrost thawing on and and its consequences for ecosystems and humans;
changes in the productivity of marine ecosystems in the Arctic and Southern Ocean:
economic impacts on fisheries, petroleum and other human activities; and social
impacts on northern indigenous populations. Some of these impacts will have
positive ramifications, but most are likely to be detrimental. While uncertainties
exist about the future, climate change in the polar regions during the past few
decades can be shown to have had major impacts already which will become much mole
pronounced if present trends continue.
Publisher
International Glaciological Society
Cited by
24 articles.
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