Impact of a climate change on avalanche hazard

Abstract

AbstractThe SAFRAN/Crocus/MÉPRA software is used to assess the climatology of the avalanche hazard and its sensitivity to climate change. A natural avalanche-hazard index based on MEPRA analysis is defined and validated against natural avalanche observations (triggered avalanches are not taken into account). A 15 year climatology then allows a comparison of avalanche hazard in the different French massifs. Finally a simple climate scenario (with a general increase of precipitation and temperature) shows that avalanche hazard may decrease slightly in winter (mainly February) and more significantly in May/June. The relative proportion of wet-snow avalanches increases.