Monitoring and prediction of shrinkage of a small glacier in the Nepal Himalaya

Abstract

In 1978, the first detailed glaciological studies were carried out on the small glacier AX010 in a glacier inventory of Dudh Kosi region, in the Nepal Himalaya. Its length, area and highest and lowest elevations in 1978 were 1.7 km, 0.57 km2, 5360 and 4950 m a.s.l., respectively. Two resurveys of its terminus position and/or surface elevations were carried out in 1989 and 1991. The glacier retreated by about 30 and 28 m during the periods 1978–89 and 1989–91, respectively.In 1995, annual monitoring of this glacier by means of ground survey, stake method and topographical mapping began, in order to obtain its mass balance, surface flow velocity and extent, and link them with climatic conditions. The results obtained in 1995 are summarized as follows: (1) During the period 1991–95, the glacier retreated by 12 m. (2) Associated with the ice-thickness loss in the lower part of the glacier, the horizontal surface velocities along the center line in 1995 (June–October) showed a remarkable decrease on the glacier tongue, to about 50% of those in 1978.Shrinkage of the glacier in the near future is predicted from a simple model calculation for the case that climatic conditions remain unchanged from 1995. The results show that the present shrinkage should continue and accelerate.