Calculation of Snow Avalanche Runout Distance

Abstract

Distance of maximum avalanche runout is calculated by four topographical factors. An empirical equation found by regression analysis of 206 avalanches is used to predict the maximum runout distance in terms of average gradient of the avalanche path (angle α). The correlation coefficient R = 0.92, and the standard deviation of the residuals SD = 2.3°.The avalanche paths are further classified into different categories depending on confinement of the path, average inclination of the track 6, curvature of the path y", vertical displacement Y, and inclination of rupture zone Q. The degree of confinement is found to have no significant effect on the runout distance expressed by a. Best prediction of runout distance is found by a classification based on 5 and Y. For avalanches with β <30° and Y > 900 m, R = 0.90 and SD = 1.02°.The population of avalanches is applied to a numerical/dynamical model presented by Perla and others (1980). Different values for the friction constants v and M/DY are computed, based on the observed extent of the avalanches. The computations are supplied by velocity measurements v from a test avalanche where Y = 1 000 m, and vmax = 60 m s−1. The best fitted values are μ = 0.25 and M/DY = 0.5, which gives R = 0.83 and SD = 3.5°.