Modelling the Optimal Electricity Mix for Togo by 2050 Using OSeMOSYS

Author:

Tchandao Esso-Wazam Honoré1ORCID,Salami Akim Adekunlé12ORCID,Kodjo Koffi Mawugno12ORCID,Nabiliou Amy12ORCID,Ouedraogo Seydou3ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Centre d'Excellence Régional pour la Maîtrise de l'Electricité (CERME), Université de Lomé, 01 BP 1515 Lomé 01, Togo

2. Département de Génie Electrique, École Nationale Supérieure d'Ingénieurs (ENSI), Université de Lomé, 01 BP 1515 Lomé 01, Togo

3. Laboratoire de Recherche en Sciences de l’Ingénieur (LARSI), Département de Génie Électrique, Institut Universitaire de Technologie, Université Nazi BONI, 01 BP 1091 Bobo-Dioulasso 01, Burkina Faso

Abstract

This work uses bottom-up modeling to explore the future evolution trajectories of the electricity mix in Togo by 2050. The objective is to investigate the evolution of the mix and the future investments needed to achieve the sustainable energy and climate change goals. Three scenarios were developed using OSeMOSYS. The reference scenario, named Business As Usual, closely reflects the evolution of the Togolese electricity sector under a business-as-usual assumption and planned capacity increases up to 2030. The second scenario, Net Zero by 2050, is based on the first scenario while ensuring that CO2 emissions cancel out in 2050 by following the Weibull law. The third scenario called Emission Penalty aims not only at the integration of renewable energies like the second one but also at the least cost electricity mix if emission penalties are applied. The results of the cost optimization indicate that photovoltaic and importation are the optimal choices ahead of gas and hydropower. The renewable energy aspect of the electricity mix is more highlighted in the last scenario. At the same time, the model shows that greater energy independence is achievable at the cost of a transitory increase in the cost of the electricity system. A tenfold investment effort is needed in 2030 to ensure either continuity of the status quo or a shift in strategy.

Funder

Centre d'Excellence Régional pour la Maîtrise de l'Electricité (CERME), Université de Lomé

Publisher

Center of Biomass and Renewable Energy Scientia Academy

Subject

Energy Engineering and Power Technology,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment,Environmental Engineering,Energy (miscellaneous)

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Unlocking renewable energy potential: Harnessing machine learning and intelligent algorithms;International Journal of Renewable Energy Development;2024-06-07

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