Future forest fires as functions of climate change and attack time for central Bohemian region, Czech Republic

Abstract

This paper presents a new analysis of how global warming may affect the size of forest fires through its effects on air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The effects of attack time on the size of the final burned area were also determined simultaneously in the statistical analysis. Two nonlinear functions determining the size of fires in the Prague-East District of the Czech Republic were estimated, based on a set of explanatory variables including air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and attack time. The functions were determined by multiple regression analysis combined with logarithmic transformations. The effects of climate change scenarios on future forest fires were calculated using the estimated fire-size function. The results show that if global warming leads to increased air temperature, reduced humidity, and stronger winds, we can expect larger fires. According to climate change scenarios, an upturn in the size of fires is predicted over this century. While we can control the fire by reducing the attack time, the results also show that if firefighters can reach a fire more quickly, the size of the fire will be reduced. If forest management methods, infrastructure, and fire brigade capacity are not adapted to the new climate, larger areas can be expected to be destroyed by fire.