Comparison of various growth functions for predicting long-term stand development associated with different initial spacing in 64-year-old Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica (L.f.) D. Don) plantations

Abstract

Establishing a plantation with varied distances between trees is one way to control stand density in an initial growth stage. Understanding how stand growth patterns are influenced by initial spacing can help maximize growth and yield. The purpose of this study was to examine the long-term effects of different patterns of initial tree spacing on stand development. A spacing trial with five initial distances, namely, treatments I: 1×1 m, II: 2×2 m, III: 3×3 m, IV: 4×4 m, and V: 5×5 m, was established in 1950 in Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica (L.f.) D. Don) plantations in central Taiwan, managed by the Experimental Forest of National Taiwan University. Each treatment had three repetitions, and all plots were surveyed from 1955 to 2014, with eight records for each time series. We simultaneously employed six growth functions to predict stand basal area growth for each plot and assessed their predictability using the root mean square error (RMSE) as a criterion. Consequently, a total of twelve plots covering all treatments except treatment I, each with six RMSEs resulting from various models, were obtained. The repeated measures analysis of variance approach was adopted to compare predictability among models. The Richards growth function performed the best compared to all the other models. As a result, this model was used to analyse stand development following different initial spacing. We found that the predicted curves could effectively exhibit the growth patterns resulting from different initial spacing. Moreover, the parameters help explain some characteristics of stand development, such as growth potential and maximum growth rate achieved (t max). As a result, a clear trend emerged, showing that, with decreasing initial spacing, the growth potential increased and the t max decreased. These results provided valuable information for managing the stand density of this conifer.