The Impact of Currency Exchange Rates and Canadian and U.S. Unemployment Rates on Non-Immigrant Visas from Canada to the U.S.

Abstract

Changes in immigration rates by Canadians from 1989 to 2006 were examined for three non-immigrant visa categories. Cross correlation functions (CCF) were calculated relating changes in numbers of visas to changes in Canada-U.S. currency exchange and unemployment rates. Regression analyses tested Han- Ibbott’s (2005) model of immigration decision-making and a variation of Herrnstein’s (1961) matching law. CCF analysis found that currency exchange and unemployment rates were predictive of changes in immigration rates. Regression analyses indicated that a devalued Canadian dollar discouraged migration to the U.S. These findings have implications for Canada-U.S. inequities in bilateral immigration under NAFTA, with Canada experiencing a greater drain in human capital.