Using Foresight Technology to Limit the Spread of Sexually Transmitted Infections in the Population

Abstract

Introduction. Over the past decade there has been a steady increase in the incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), which are one of the main causes of reproductive health problems in the world. In the Russian Federation, as in the rest of the world, this problem is relevant, especially among pregnant women. In addition, the problem of detecting, registering, and recording the prevalence of STIs, as well as involving contact persons in the examination remains a problem in Russia. The purpose of this work was to analyze the possibility of using foresight technology to reduce morbidity and monitor the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections in the population, including by evaluating the available literature. Materials and methods. A retrospective study of medical records of syphilis and gonorrhea morbidity in the Sverdlovsk region over a ten-year period was carried out. Intensity rates of gonorrhea, syphilis and other infections per 100 thousand people were calculated. Student's test was used to compare incidence rates. Results. In order to implement foresight-technology we determined the basic indicators of morbidity indicator: gender, age and social data, belonging to "risk groups", motivational and behavioral features of different groups in the population. The incidence of syphilis and gonorrhea in the Sverdlovsk region over a 10-year period decreased by more than 50% (p < 0.05), the incidence rate of syphilis in the group of pregnant women in 2019 is five times higher than in the entire population of the Sverdlovsk region (p < 0.05). The actual discrepancy between the trend for 2019 and the registered actual incidence in the same year was 1.7-3 times. Discussion. Based on the discrepancy between the actually registered incidence of syphilis and gonococcal infection with the calculated trend for them, the main groups of problems in the organization of the activities of medical institutions were identified. Conclusions. The use of elements of foresight technology to limit the spread of STIs by organizing medical and preventive measures to minimize and prevent infection with these infections, both in specific populations and in the general population, allows for the effectiveness of this work in the practice of the dermatovenerologist.