A Time Series Analysis on the Determinants of Women’s Labor Participation in the Case of Structural Break

Abstract

This study has aimed to investigate the relationship between female labor force participation rate, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization rate, and unemployment rate in Turkiye under structural breaks, using annual data between 1990 and 2020 with the structural break time series analysis method. ADF, PP, and KPSS unit root tests and Zivot-Andrews unit root test, which is one of the structural break unit root tests, were used for stationarity. The Gregory-Hansen cointegration test, which allows a single break, was applied to examine the long-term relationship between the variables. For the causality relationship, Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis was preferred. The results of the study reveal that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables based on the relevant period in Turkiye. According to the results of the causality analysis, two-way causality was found between GDP per capita and urbanization, and one-way causality from women's labor force participation rate to urbanization rate and GDP per capita. However, no causal relationship was found between female labor force participation rate and unemployment rate. As a result, the increase in female labor force participation increases the urban population socio-demographically and the growth in economic terms. In addition, it should be noted that the woman who takes her economic freedom; its effects on child mortality, fertility, spending habits, health-education expenditures, and thus sustainable growth- development cannot be underestimated and the place of women in the economy is an important issue that needs to be investigated further considering these effects.