The Long-run and Short-run Impact of Exchange Rate Devaluation on Pakistan’s Trade Performance

Abstract

In estimating trade elasticities for Pakistan, most previous researchers have employed non-stationary data and OLS or 2SLS techniques. In this paper we use Johansen’s cointegration methodology to re-investigate the long-run trade elasticities and existence of the Marshall-Lerner condition. Using quarterly data, the trade performance with Pakistan’s ten major trading partners is empirically tested. Moreover, we also investigate the short-run exchange rate dynamics by constructing an error-corrrection model to trace the j-curve.