Risks of morbidity and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Russian regions

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has covered all Russian regions. As of May 8, 2020, about 190 thousand cases have been identified, more than 1600 people with the corresponding diagnosis have died. The values of the indicators are expected to rise. However, the statistics of confirmed cases and deaths may underestimate their actual extent due to testing peculiarities, lagging reporting and other factors. The article identifies and describes the characteristics of the regions in which the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 is higher. Migration of potential carriers of the virus: summer workers and migrant workers from Moscow and large agglomerations, as well as return of labour migrants to the North increase the risks of the disease spread. The risk of mortality is higher in regions with high proportions of the poor and aged residents, for whom it is difficult to adapt to the pandemic, and lower in regions with greater health infrastructure. Based on the revealed patterns, a typology of regions on possible risks is proposed. Above all the risks in and near the largest agglomerations (the cities of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, Moscow and Leningrad Oblasts), in the northern regions where the share of labour migrants is high (Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs), in southern underdeveloped regions (Ingushetia, Karachay-Cherkess, Kabardino-Balkarian Republics, Dagestan, North Ossetia). For the latter, the consequences may be most significant due to the limited capacity to adapt to the pandemic and self-isolation regime, and additional support measures may be required in these regions.