Applying an invasion and risk framework to track non-native island floras: a case study of challenges and solutions in Hawai‘i

Abstract

Islands are plant invasion hotspots, with some having more non-native than native species. Many plants are recent arrivals, leading to concerns that their full spread and impacts are not yet realised. Given that islands host extraordinary numbers of endemic and threatened species, schemes are urgently needed to track the complex, species-rich but data-poor scenarios typical of islands. This study applies the unified framework by Blackburn et al. (2011) for categorising invasion stages to Hawai‘i’s non-native plant checklist and identifies potential uses and complications for species tracking and invasion management. Data deficiencies and ambiguities required lumping Blackburn et al.’s categories to align with Hawai‘i’s available data; nonetheless, this coarser categorisation describes invasion phases relevant to managers and could provide the basis for an effective tracking system. However, the unified framework does not accommodate uncertain invasion statuses, which prevents clear categorisation of species that exist outside of cultivation but are not definitely naturalised. In response to this obstacle, scores from the Hawai‘i-Pacific Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) are explored to understand their application for predicting naturalisation, including standard WRA scores as well as alternative scoring methods. We show that this predictive tool may be a promising supplement to on-the-ground monitoring for data-deficient elements of a flora. Finally, a categorisation system for tracking statuses of an entire non-native flora is proposed that requires limited investments in additional data collection while following the rationale of Blackburn et al.’s scheme. This categorisation system may be used to reveal overall invasion patterns and trends in a region, leading to valuable insights into strategies for biodiversity management and conservation.