Determinants of regional fertility in China during the first years of reaching below-replacement fertility

Abstract

China reached a stable below-replacement fertility in the middle of 1990s. The turn of this century saw the population development gap in various regions across China expanding, the total fertility rate (TFR) shrinking and remaining at a relatively lower level with the passage of time. Based on China’s official statistics, the authors analyzed the characteristics of the total fertility rate at each stage of the population policy adjustment (1970s, 1982-2013, after 2013), in particular, in the regional aspect. The sub-stage of 1995-2010 – the first years of below-replacement fertility – were considered closely in sense of determinants of regional gaps in fertility. With the help of quantitative analysis, it can be proved that regional per capita GDP (wealth level) has significant links with fertility rate. The higher the per capita GDP, the lower the fertility rate. The authors concluded that the regional total fertility rates and per capita GDP were inversely related, and per capita GDP was the factor that had the greatest correlation with the regional total fertility rate. To increase the regional fertility rate, it is necessary not only to relax the family planning policy, but also to implement incentive policies related to human fertility and to strengthen social, economic, demographic, and cultural constructions.