What determines the ambitiousness of climate policy in different сountries

Abstract

Climate change is considered one of the most challenging problems of the 21st century and requires coordinated action by governments across the globe. The Paris Agreement, ratified by most countries of the world, sets the goal of keeping the average temperature rise within 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. As part of the Agreement, countries set nationally determined contributions (NDCs)—targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions—which are determined voluntarily. Because these targets are nationally determined, they depend on domestic constraints and the additional opportunities that individual countries’ emission reduction strategies present. As a result, climate policies vary widely among countries, both in terms of the emission reduction targets and the policy instruments used. The purpose of this study is to systematize the factors influencing climate policy using factor and cluster analysis methods. Factor analysis is used to aggregate a set of investigated statistical indicators, reflecting a country’s development level, exposure to climate risks, energy endowment, and foreign trade specialization, into a series of principal components. Based on the selected principal components, the countries are clustered into homogeneous groups, and the indicators of climate policy ambition are compared among the clusters. The results of the study demonstrate that climate change vulnerability is not a determinant of climate policy. As a rule, the poorest and most vulnerable countries set the least ambitious emission reduction targets. At the same time, rich and energy-abundant countries are more likely to implement active climate policies and set more ambitious emissions reduction targets compared to energy-intensive countries and countries that specialize in exporting carbon-intensive products. Advanced climate policy instruments, such as a carbon tax or emissions trading system, are used with greater frequency in more advanced and energy-deficient countries.