Granger causality between cardiovascular diseases and some macroeconomic indicators: Azerbaijan case

Abstract

Objective: Statistical assessment of the interdependence of CVD indicators on macroeconomic indicators on the example of Azerbaijan. Design: Research design is to test statistical hypotheses about the presence of direct and inverse causal relationships between CDV-indicators and macroeconomic indicators. Baseline and estimated data cover the period from 1991 to 2018 and are based on data from the SSCRA (2019) report. We use paired linear regression in which macroeconomic indicators are independent and CDV indicators are dependent variables. The stationarity of the time series was checked using the ADF test. To investigate the causal relationship between time series, the Granger test was used. Main Outcome Measures: p-level < 0.05; time lags are 1, 2 and 3 years. Results: Absence of direct and inverse causal relationship between CVD indicators and macroeconomic indicators GDP per capita, average annual income households per capita and average annual income households per capita. Conclusions: In the period from 1991 to 2018, the number of CDV deaths in Azerbaijan increased by 1.54. There is a steady increase in CDV diseases by 2.23 times. Despite GDP growth, there is no direct and inverse causal relationship between CVD indicators and macroeconomic indicators in the sense of the Granger test.