Uncertainty Estimates for SeaSonde HF Radar Ocean Current Observations

Abstract

Abstract HF radars typically produce maps of surface current velocities without estimates of the measurement uncertainties. Many users of HF radar data, including spill response and search and rescue operations, incorporate these observations into models and would thus benefit from quantified uncertainties. Using both simulations and coincident observations from the baseline between two operational SeaSonde HF radars, we demonstrate the utility of expressions for estimating the uncertainty in the direction obtained with the Multiple Signal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm. Simulations of radar backscatter using surface currents from the Regional Ocean Modeling System show a close correspondence between direction of arrival (DOA) errors and estimated uncertainties, with mean values of 15° at 10 dB, falling to less than 3° at 30 dB. Observations from two operational SeaSondes have average DOA uncertainties of 2.7° and 3.8°, with a fraction of the observations (10.5% and 7.1%, respectively) having uncertainties of >10°. Using DOA uncertainties for data quality control improves time series comparison statistics between the two radars, with r2=0.6 increasing to r2=0.75 and RMS difference decreasing from 15 to 12 cm s−1. The analysis illustrates the major sources of error in oceanographic HF radars and suggests that the DOA uncertainties are suitable for assimilation into numerical models.