Predicting Rapid Changes in Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) and Soil Moisture Anomalies over the Continental United States.

Author:

Lorenz David J.1,Otkin Jason A.2,Zaitchik Benjamin3,Hain Christopher4,Anderson Martha C.5

Affiliation:

1. Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin

2. Space Science and Engineering Center, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin

3. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland

4. NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center, Earth Science Office, Huntsville, Alabama

5. USDA, Agricultural Research Service, Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Beltsville, Maryland

Abstract

AbstractProbabilistic forecasts of changes in soil moisture and an Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) on sub-seasonal time scales over the contiguous U.S. are developed. The forecasts use the current land surface conditions and numerical weather prediction forecasts from the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project. Changes in soil moisture are quite predictable 8-14 days in advance with 50% or more of the variance explained over the majority of the contiguous U.S.; however, changes in ESI are significantly less predictable. A simple red noise model of predictability shows that the spatial variations in forecast skill are primarily a result of variations in the autocorrelation, or persistence, of the predicted variable, especially for the ESI. The difference in overall skill between soil moisture and ESI, on the other hand, is due to the greater soil moisture predictability by the numerical model forecasts. As the forecast lead time increases from 8-14 days to 15-28 days, however, the autocorrelation dominates the soil moisture and ESI differences as well. An analysis of modelled transpiration, and bare soil and canopy water evaporation contributions to total evaporation, suggests improvements to the ESI forecasts can be achieved by estimating the relative contributions of these components to the initial ESI state. The importance of probabilistic forecasts for reproducing the correct probability of anomaly intensification is also shown.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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