Cross-Seasonal Relationship between the Boreal Autumn SAM and Winter Precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5

Abstract

Abstract Recent work suggests that the boreal autumn Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) favors a tripole pattern of winter precipitation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. This study focuses on the abilities of climate models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to reproduce the physical processes involved in this observed cross-seasonal connection. A systematic evaluation suggested that 16 out of 25 models were essentially capable of reproducing this cross-seasonal connection. Two categories of models were selected to explore the underlying reasons for these successful simulations. Models that successfully simulated the cross-seasonal relationship were placed in the type-I category, and these performed well in reproducing the related physical mechanism, known as the “coupled ocean–atmosphere bridge,” in terms of the SST variability associated with the SAM and response of the meridional circulation to these SST anomalies. In contrast, the type-II category of models showed poor performance in representing the related processes and associated feedbacks, and the model biases compromised the performance of the simulated cross-seasonal relationship. These results demonstrate that the capability of the CMIP5 models to reproduce SST variability associated with the boreal autumn SAM and related coupled ocean–atmosphere bridge process plays a decisive role in the successful simulation of the cross-seasonal relationship.