The Onset of the Indonesian–Australian Summer Monsoon Triggered by the First-Branch Eastward-Propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) often causes the onset of the Indonesian–Australian summer monsoon (IASM) over Indonesia and northern Australia. In the present study, a composite analysis is conducted to reveal the detailed IASM onset process and its air–sea interactions associated with the first-branch eastward-propagating MJO (FEMJO) based on 30-yr ERA-Interim data, satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and SODA3 ocean reanalysis. The results distinctly illustrate the phase-locked relationships among the persistent sea surface warming north of Australia, the FEMJO, and the established westerlies. It is found that the SST to the north of Australia reaches its annual maximum just before the onset of the summer monsoon. The oceanic surface mixed layer heat budget discloses that this rapid warming is primarily produced by the enhanced surface heat flux. In addition, this premonsoon sea surface warming increases the air specific humidity in the low-level troposphere and then establishes zonal moisture asymmetry relative to the FEMJO convection. This creates a more unstable atmospheric stratification southeast of the FEMJO and favors convection throughout the vicinity of northern Australia, which ultimately triggers the onset of the IASM. The results in this study thus may potentially be applicable to seasonal monsoon climate monitoring and prediction.