Affiliation:
1. Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
2. Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina
Abstract
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) can develop into intense cyclonic systems accompanied by high-impact weather in areas far removed from the original TC. This study presents an analysis of multiseasonal global simulations representative of present-day and projected future climates using the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A), with high resolution (15-km grid) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. TCs are tracked as minima in sea level pressure (SLP) accompanied by a warm core, and TC tracks are extended into the extratropical phase based on local minima in SLP and use of a cyclone phase space method. The present-day simulations adequately represent observed ET characteristics such as frequency, location, and seasonal cycles throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The most significant changes in future ET events occur in the North Atlantic (NATL) basin. Here, a more favorable background environment, a shift toward stronger TC warm cores in the lower troposphere, and a significant poleward shift in TC location lead to a ~40% increase in the number of NATL ET events and a ~6% increase in the fraction of TCs undergoing ET. This equates to approximately 1–2 additional ET events per year in this region. In the future simulations, ET in the NATL occurs markedly farther north by ~4°–5°N, and the resultant extratropical cyclones are stronger by ~6 hPa. These changes hold potentially important implications for areas directly affected by ET events, such as eastern North America, as well as for regions indirectly impacted by downstream effects, including western Europe.
Funder
National Science Foundation
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Cited by
40 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献