An Intermodel Approach to Identify the Source of Excessive Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue in CMIP5 Models and Uncertainty in Observational Datasets

Abstract

Abstract An excessive cold tongue error in the equatorial Pacific has prevailed in several generations of climate models. However, the causes of this problem remain a mystery, partly owing to uncertainty and/or a lack of observational datasets. Based on the multimodel ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study introduces a novel intermodel approach to identify the bias source by going beyond comparison with observational datasets. Intermodel statistics show that the excessive cold tongue bias could be traced back to a too strong oceanic dynamic cooling linked to a too shallow thermocline along the equatorial Pacific. A heat budget analysis suggests that the excessive oceanic dynamic cooling is balanced by the surface latent heat flux (LHF) adjustment. This is consistent with a variety of oceanic and atmospheric observations but at odds with the popular objectively analyzed air–sea heat fluxes (OAFlux) products. Further analyses suggest an alarming overestimation of OAFlux net surface heat flux (Qnet) into the tropical Pacific, mainly ascribed to observational uncertainly in air specific humidity. Implications for intermodel statistics in assessing model processes, validating observational data, and regulating future climate projections are discussed.