Can Polar Lows be Objectively Identified and Tracked in the ECMWF Operational Analysis and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis?

Abstract

Abstract Polar lows are maritime mesocyclones associated with intense surface wind speeds and oceanic heat fluxes at high latitudes. The ability of the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim, hereafter ERAI) to represent polar lows in the North Atlantic is assessed by comparing ERAI and the ECMWF operational analysis for the period 2008–11. First, the representation of a set of satellite-observed polar lows over the Norwegian and Barents Seas in the operational analysis and ERAI is analyzed. Then, the possibility of directly identifying and tracking the polar lows in the operational analysis and ERAI is explored using a tracking algorithm based on 850-hPa vorticity with objective identification criteria on cyclone dynamical intensity and atmospheric static stability. All but one of the satellite-observed polar lows with a lifetime of at least 6 h have an 850-hPa vorticity signature of a collocated mesocyclone in both the operational analysis and ERAI for most of their life cycles. However, the operational analysis has vorticity structures that better resemble the observed cloud patterns and stronger surface wind speed intensities compared to those in ERAI. By applying the objective identification criteria, about 55% of the satellite-observed polar lows are identified and tracked in ERAI, while this fraction increases to about 70% in the operational analysis. Particularly in ERAI, the remaining observed polar lows are mainly not identified because they have too weak wind speed and vorticity intensity compared to the tested criteria. The implication of the tendency of ERAI to underestimate the polar low dynamical intensity for future studies of polar lows is discussed.