Population Exposure to Compound Precipitation–Temperature Extremes in the Past and Future Climate across India

Abstract

Abstract This study explores the population exposure to an increasing number of hydroclimatic extreme events owing to the warming climate. It is well agreed that the extreme events are increasing in terms of frequency as well as intensity due to climate change and that the exposure to compound extreme events (concurrent occurrence of two or more extreme phenomena) affects population, ecosystems, and a variety of socioeconomic aspects more adversely. Specifically, the compound precipitation–temperature extremes (hot-dry and hot-wet) are considered, and the entire Indian mainland is regarded as the study region that spans over a wide variety of climatic regimes and wide variation of population density. The developed copula-based statistical method evaluates the change in population exposure to the compound extremes across the past (1981–2020) and future (near future: 2021–60 and far future: 2061–2100) due to climate change. The results indicate an increase of more than 10 million person-year exposure from the compound extremes across many regions of the country, considering both near and far future periods. Densely populated regions have experienced more significant changes in hot-wet extremes as compared with the hot-dry extremes in the past, and the same is projected to continue in the future. The increase is as much as sixfold in many parts of the country, including the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southernmost coastal regions, identified as the future hotspots with the maximum increase in exposure under all the projected warming and population scenarios. The study helps to identify the regions that may need greater attention based on the risks of population exposure to compound extremes in a warmer future. Significance Statement How is the growing population being affected now, and in the future, how will it be affected due to climate change induced compound extreme events? This study explores this societal consequence in terms of population exposure for the most populous country, India. An increase of more than 10 million person-year exposure from the precipitation–temperature compound extremes across many regions is indicated. Densely populated regions are expected to experience enhanced population exposure to hot-wet extremes as compared with the hot-dry extremes. Furthermore, the maximum increase in population exposure to compound extremes is expected across the Indo-Gangetic Plain and southern coastal regions of India. The outcome of the study will be helpful for adopting socioeconomic decisions toward the welfare of society.