Applying a Divisive Clustering Algorithm to a Large Ensemble for Medium-Range Forecasting at the Weather Prediction Center

Author:

Brill Keith F.1,Fracasso Anthony R.2,Bailey Christopher M.2

Affiliation:

1. I.M. Systems Group, Inc., and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

2. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Weather Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

Abstract

Abstract This article explores the potential advantages of using a clustering approach to distill information contained within a large ensemble of forecasts in the medium-range time frame. A divisive clustering algorithm based on the one-dimensional discrete Fourier transformation is described and applied to the 70-member combination of the 20-member National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the 50-member European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble. Cumulative statistical verification indicates that clusters selected objectively based on having the largest number of members do not perform better than the ECMWF ensemble mean. However, including a cluster in a blended forecast to maintain continuity or to nudge toward a preferred solution may be a reasonable strategy in some cases. In such cases, a cluster may be used to sharpen a forecast weakly depicted by the ensemble mean but favored in consideration of continuity, consistency, collaborative thinking, and/or the trend in the guidance. Clusters are often useful for depicting forecast solutions not apparent via the ensemble mean but supported by a subset of ensemble members. A specific case is presented to demonstrate the possible utility of a clustering approach in the forecasting process.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

Cited by 8 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Improving the skill of medium range ensemble rainfall forecasts over India using MoES grand ensemble (MGE)-part-I;Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics;2024-08-31

2. The Use of Ensemble Clustering on a Multimodel Ensemble for Medium-Range Forecasting at the Weather Prediction Center;Weather and Forecasting;2023-04

3. Innovations in Winter Storm Forecasting and Decision Support Services;Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society;2023-03

4. AWT - Clustering Meteorological Time Series Using an Aggregated Wavelet Tree;2022 IEEE 9th International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA);2022-10-13

5. Clustering and selection of boundary conditions for limited‐area ensemble prediction;Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society;2018-10

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3